THE VALUE OF THE PROJECT OF A GOLD MINE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BY MODELS DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW AND REAL OPTIONS
O VALOR DO PROJETO DE UMA MINA DE OURO:
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24325/issn.2446-5763.v5i15p122-134Keywords:
Fluxo de Caixa DescontadoAbstract
The decision to invest in mining projects is strategic. In general, economic evaluation models, such as the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), is used to analyze the viability of these projects. According to the FCD, the inputs and outputs are known financial resources and business strategy designed early in the project will be held until the end of it. However, in practice, decisions are made under uncertainty, and managers have certain flexibilities. Under these conditions, the literature suggests that projects are evaluated by Real Options. Thus, this study examines comparatively the values of a gold mining project when evaluated by these two models. The uncertainties of the product price, the cost of extraction and content recoverable are implemented by Monte Carlo simulation. The option to abandon the project after the first year of operation, when it could be sold for predetermined value, is admitted as managerial flexibility. The results reveal that the incorporation of uncertainty and managerial flexibility in economic analysis adds value to the project. With this, the project so far rejected by FCD became feasible by Real Options analysis. It was also found that with the approaching end of the operational life of the mine, due to the reduction of the estimated future cash flows, increases the likelihood of abandonment of the project.
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